August 20, 2024
Timothy Aylor
Senior Economist
Economic Information & Analytics Division
LMI@virginiaworks.gov
(804) 786-3976
Virginia Hires 33,000 Lower in June
~ Latest BLS Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Indicates Hiring Lower Compared to A Year Earlier ~
RICHMOND— Virginia Works (the Virginia Department of Workforce Development and Advancement) announced today that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June 2024 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reports the ability to fill open positions weakened over the month.
According to the most recent BLS JOLTS survey data, the number of June 2024 hires in Virginia fell by 33,000 over the month but remained comparable to five years earlier. BLS JOLTS data provides information on all the pieces that go into the net change in the number of jobs. These components include job openings, hires, layoffs, voluntary quits, and other job separations (which includes retirements and worker deaths). Putting those components together reveals the overall change in payroll employment. JOLTS data is seasonally adjusted and describes conditions on the last business day of the month. Current month’s data are preliminary and the previous month’s data have been revised.
On the last business day in June, there were 250,000 job openings in Virginia, seasonally adjusted, unchanged from May’s revised figure. On the last business day of June, the number of U.S. job openings was unchanged at 8.2 million and was down by nearly a million over the year. U.S. job openings increased in accommodation and food services (+120,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (+94,000). The number of job openings decreased in durable goods manufacturing (-88,000) and in federal government (-62,000). Significant increases in the job openings level occurred in New York (+39,000) and Arizona (+33,000). The decreases included New Jersey (-31,000) and Indiana (-28,000).
In Virginia, the June job openings rate was 5.5 percent, little changed from May’s rate. The U.S. rate was unchanged at 4.9 percent in June. Nationwide, within government, the federal government job openings rate was 3.4 percent, the lowest since February 2021. Additional U.S. industries with job openings rates below 4.0 percent in June 2024 include mining and logging (3.1 percent), construction (3.5 percent), and manufacturing and information (3.6 percent each). The job openings rate in professional and business services was 6.1 percent in June; the recent peak was 9.7 percent in March 2022. Significant increases in job openings rates occurred in Arizona (+0.9 percentage point) and New York (+0.4 point). The decreases occurred in Indiana (-0.8 point) and New Jersey (-0.7 point).
The number of hires in Virginia fell to 147,000 in June, a decrease of 33,000 over the month and down by 39,000 from June 2023. JOLTS defines hires as all additions to the payroll during the month. The number of hires was 45 percent lower than the series high of 267,000 set in June 2020. In June, the number of U.S. hires was little changed at 5.3 million in June but was down by 554,000 over the year. The largest decreases in the hires level occurred in California (-71,000), Michigan (-49,000), and Tennessee (-39,000). The increases occurred in Colorado (+22,000), Montana (+10,000), and Alaska (+3,000). A significant decrease occurred in Louisiana (-15,000). In Virginia, the 3.4 hires rate decreased from May’s revised 4.2 percent rate. This equaled the U.S. rate, which was little changed over the month. The largest decreases in the hires rate occurred in Tennessee (-1.2 percentage points), Michigan (-1.1 points), and Mississippi (-0.9 point). The increases included Montana (+1.8 points), Alaska (+0.9 point), and Colorado (+0.8 point).
The Virginia hires-per-job-openings (HPJO) ratio edged down from May. This measure shows the rate of hiring compared to open jobs and is a proxy for time to fill positions.
In June 2024, there were 0.5 unemployed per job opening in the Commonwealth, compared to nationwide, with 0.8 unemployed per job opening nationwide. In Virginia, the unemployed per job opening ratio (sometimes called the ‘job seekers ratio’) peaked at 4.4 unemployed per job opening in February 2010 during the Great Recession, while the number of unemployed workers per job opening stood at 0.3 in April 2020 during the height of pandemic employment impacts.
Total separations in Virginia decreased by 17,000 to 142,000. Nationwide, the number of total separations in June changed little at 5.1 million. This measure was down by 544,000 over the year. Total separations decreased in state and local government education (-51,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-39,000). The largest decreases in the total separations level occurred in California (-96,000), Florida (-49,000), and Pennsylvania (-44,000). The increase occurred in Texas (+91,000). The Virginia total separations rate fell to 3.3 percent, a little lower over the month. Nationwide, the total separations rate was little changed at 3.2 percent in June. Significant decreases in total separations rates occurred in Montana (-1.7 percentage points), Colorado (-1.0 point), and New Hampshire (-0.9 point). A large increase occurred in Texas (+0.7 point).
An estimated 85,000 workers quit jobs from Virginia employers in June. The number of quits decreased 18,000 from May’s revised figure. This was lower by 22 percent over-the-year and seven percent lower than five years earlier. Quits, a component of total separations, are voluntary separations initiated by the employee. In June, the number of quits nationwide was little changed at 3.3 million but was down by 434,000 over the year. U.S. quits decreased in construction (-64,000) and in state and local government education (-55,000). The largest decreases in the quits level occurred in California (-55,000), Pennsylvania (-25,000), and Kansas (-8,000). The increase occurred in Texas (+75,000). The quits rate in the Commonwealth edged down to two percent and remained at levels seen over the last two years. The U.S. quits rate was unchanged at 2.1 percent in June. The largest decreases in the quits rates occurred in New Hampshire, North Dakota, and South Dakota (-0.7 percentage point each). A significant increase occurred in Texas (+0.5 point).
The number of layoffs and discharges in Virginia was 44,000 in June, unchanged from May. This was also unchanged over the year but down by nearly a third from five years earlier. Layoffs and discharges are countercyclical, which means that layoffs typically increase during economic contractions and decrease during economic expansions. Nationwide in June, the number of layoffs and discharges
changed little at 1.5 million. U.S. layoffs and discharges decreased in finance and insurance (-26,000). Significant decreases in the layoffs and discharges level occurred in Florida (-52,000), California (-46,000), and Colorado (-28,000). The increase occurred in Oklahoma (+7,000).
The Virginia layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at one percent. The U.S. rate decreased to 0.9 percent. For establishments with 5,000 or more employees, the layoffs and discharges rate significantly decreased. The largest decreases occurred in Montana (-1.5 percentage points), Colorado (-0.9 point), and Florida (-0.5 point).
The June ‘churn’ rate (the sum of the hires rate and total separations rate) in Virginia fell by nearly a full percentage point from May’s revised 7.9 percent figure, the slowest pace since 2020. This was in line with nationwide as recent U.S. trends indicated a continued deceleration of movement of workers from job to job since the beginning of 2022. While more volatile month-to-month, Virginia’s pace has been more active for over a year.
On the last business day of June, Virginia’s labor market conditions moved closer to pre-pandemic conditions as the pace of movement from job to job slowed to 2020 levels. This was driven by low numbers of layoffs compared to before the pandemic combined with fewer workers quitting in June. At the same time, job openings remained buoyant in Virginia. But, nationwide, the federal government job openings rate fell to its lowest level since February 2021, which may have been felt by Northern Virginia job seekers.
###
Definitions of JOLTS terms*
Job Openings
Job openings include all positions that are open on the last business day of the reference month. A job is open only if it meets the following three conditions: (1) A specific position exists and there is work available for that position; the position can be full time or part time, and it can be permanent, short term, or seasonal; (2) the job could start within 30 days, whether or not the employer can find a suitable candidate during that time; and (3) the employer is actively recruiting workers from outside the establishment to fill the position. Excluded are positions open only to internal transfers, promotions or demotions, or recalls from layoffs.
Hires
Hires include all additions to the payroll during the entire reference month, including newly hired and rehired employees; full-time and part-time employees; permanent, short-term, and seasonal employees; employees who were recalled to a job at the location following a layoff (formal suspension from pay status) lasting more than 7 days; on-call or intermittent employees who returned to work after having been formally separated; workers who were hired and separated during the month; and transfers from other locations. Excluded are transfers or promotions within the reporting location, employees returning from a strike, and employees of temporary help agencies, employee leasing companies, outside contractors, or consultants.
Separations
Separations include all separations from the payroll during the entire reference month and are reported by type of separation: quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits include employees who left voluntarily, except for retirements or transfers to other locations. Layoffs and discharges include involuntary separations initiated by the employer, including layoffs with no intent to rehire; layoffs (formal suspensions from pay status) lasting or expected to last more than 7 days; discharges resulting from mergers, downsizing, or closings; firings or other discharges for cause; terminations of permanent or short-term employees; and terminations of seasonal employees (whether or not they are expected to return the next season). Other separations include retirements, transfers to other locations, separations due to employee disability, and deaths. Excluded are transfers within the same location, employees on strike, and employees of temporary help agencies, employee leasing companies, outside contractors, or consultants.
*Excerpted from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Handbook of Methods, "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey: Concepts," https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/jlt/concepts.htm.
Virginia Works plans to release the July 2024 analysis of the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for Virginia on Friday September 20, 2024. The data for all states and the U.S. will be available on the BLS website JOLTS page, at https://www.bls.gov/jlt/. BLS is scheduled to release the July JOLTS data for states on Tuesday, September 17, 2024.
Technical note: Effective with the release of May 2024 data on July 24, 2024, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) state estimates have been benchmarked and revised to include the annual benchmark revisions to JOLTS national estimates, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) employment estimates, and the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data. Seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted data from January 2019 forward are subject to revision. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) produces monthly data on U.S. and regional job openings, hires, quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations from a sample of approximately 21,000 establishments. As a supplement, BLS has begun publishing state estimates that provide monthly information that can be used to better understand the dynamic activity of businesses in state economies that leads to aggregate employment changes. For more information on the program’s concepts and methodology, see “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey: Handbook of Methods” (Washington, DC: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 13, 2020), https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/jlt/home.htm. For more information on BLS’ state JOLTS estimates, see https://www.bls.gov/jlt/jlt_statedata.htm.
